The market estimates a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike this week

As Middle East tensions escalate, Franklin Investment Consulting notes that a resolution to the US-Iran conflict remains nowhere in sight, and high oil prices could further exacerbate concerns about inflation. The probability of a September rate hike has risen to 90%, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has touched 5%, weighing on the performance of the four major US stock indices.

Franklin Investment Consulting highlights four key variables to watch regarding US stocks this week. The first is the situation in the Middle East and oil prices: attention should be paid to developments in the latest round of US-Iran conflict, the status of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and fluctuations in oil prices.

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